Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a data sample was included in a machine learning (ML) model's training set and have become the de facto standard for measuring privacy leakages in ML. We propose an evaluation framework that defines the conditions under which MIAs constitute a genuine privacy threat, and review representative MIAs against it. We find that, under the realistic conditions defined in our framework, MIAs represent weak privacy threats. Thus, relying on them as a privacy metric in ML can lead to an overestimation of risk and to unnecessary sacrifices in model utility as a consequence of employing too strong defenses.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) have become the standard tool for evaluating privacy leakage in machine learning (ML). Among them, the Likelihood-Ratio Attack (LiRA) is widely regarded as the state of the art when sufficient shadow models are available. However, prior evaluations have often overstated the effectiveness of LiRA by attacking models overconfident on their training samples, calibrating thresholds on target data, assuming balanced membership priors, and/or overlooking attack reproducibility. We re-evaluate LiRA under a realistic protocol that (i) trains models using anti-overfitting (AOF) and transfer learning (TL), when applicable, to reduce overconfidence as in production models; (ii) calibrates decision thresholds using shadow models and data rather than target data; (iii) measures positive predictive value (PPV, or precision) under shadow-based thresholds and skewed membership priors (pi <= 10%); and (iv) quantifies per-sample membership reproducibility across different seeds and training variations. We find that AOF significantly weakens LiRA, while TL further reduces attack effectiveness while improving model accuracy. Under shadow-based thresholds and skewed priors, LiRA's PPV often drops substantially, especially under AOF or AOF+TL. We also find that thresholded vulnerable sets at extremely low FPR show poor reproducibility across runs, while likelihood-ratio rankings are more stable. These results suggest that LiRA, and likely weaker MIAs, are less effective than previously suggested under realistic conditions, and that reliable privacy auditing requires evaluation protocols that reflect practical training practices, feasible attacker assumptions, and reproducibility considerations. Code is available at https://github.com/najeebjebreel/lira_analysis.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) against machine learning (ML) models aim to determine whether a given data point was part of the model training data. These attacks may pose significant privacy risks to individuals whose sensitive data were used for training, which motivates the use of defenses such as differential privacy, often at the cost of high accuracy losses. MIAs exploit the differences in the behavior of a model when making predictions on samples it has seen during training (members) versus those it has not seen (non-members). Several studies have pointed out that model overfitting is the major factor contributing to these differences in behavior and, consequently, to the success of MIAs. However, the literature also shows that even non-overfitted ML models can leak information about a small subset of their training data. In this paper, we investigate the root causes of membership inference vulnerabilities beyond traditional overfitting concerns and suggest targeted defenses. We empirically analyze the characteristics of the training data samples vulnerable to MIAs in models that are not overfitted (and hence able to generalize). Our findings reveal that these samples are often outliers within their classes (e.g., noisy or hard to classify). We then propose potential defensive strategies to protect these vulnerable samples and enhance the privacy-preserving capabilities of ML models. Our code is available at https://github.com/najeebjebreel/mia_analysis.

In several jurisdictions, the regulatory framework on the release and sharing of personal data is being extended to machine learning (ML). The implicit assumption is that disclosing a trained ML model entails a privacy risk for any personal data used in training comparable to directly releasing those data. However, given a trained model, it is necessary to mount a privacy attack to make inferences on the training data. In this concept paper, we examine the main families of privacy attacks against predictive and generative ML, including membership inference attacks (MIAs), property inference attacks, and reconstruction attacks. Our discussion shows that most of these attacks seem less effective in the real world than what a prima face interpretation of the related literature could suggest.