Kunlan Xiang

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting (MLTSF) models are increasingly deployed in critical domains such as climate, finance, and transportation. Despite their growing importance, the security of MLTSF models against backdoor attacks remains entirely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose BadTime, the first effective backdoor attack tailored for MLTSF. BadTime can manipulate hundreds of future predictions toward a target pattern by injecting a subtle trigger. BadTime addresses two key challenges that arise uniquely in MLTSF: (i) the rapid dilution of local triggers over long horizons, and (ii) the extreme sparsity of backdoor signals under stealth constraints. To counter dilution, BadTime leverages inter-variable correlations, temporal lags, and data-driven initialization to design a distributed, lag-aware trigger that ensures effective influence over long-range forecasts. To overcome sparsity, it introduces a hybrid strategy to select valuable poisoned samples and a decoupled backdoor training objective that adaptively adjusts the model's focus on the sparse backdoor signal, ensuring reliable learning at a poisoning rate as low as 1%. Extensive experiments show that BadTime significantly outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) backdoor attacks on time series forecasting by extending the attackable horizon from at most 12 timesteps to 720 timesteps (a 60-fold improvement), reducing MAE by over 50% on target variables, and boosting stealthiness by more than 3-fold under anomaly detection.

Backdoor attacks against pre-trained models (PTMs) have traditionally operated under an ``immediacy assumption,'' where malicious behavior manifests instantly upon trigger occurrence. This work revisits and challenges this paradigm by introducing \textit{\textbf{Delayed Backdoor Attacks (DBA)}}, a new class of threats in which activation is temporally decoupled from trigger exposure. We propose that this \textbf{temporal dimension} is the key to unlocking a previously infeasible class of attacks: those that use common, everyday words as triggers. To examine the feasibility of this paradigm, we design and implement a proof-of-concept prototype, termed \underline{D}elayed Backdoor Attacks Based on \underline{N}onlinear \underline{D}ecay (DND). DND embeds a lightweight, stateful logic module that postpones activation until a configurable threshold is reached, producing a distinct latency phase followed by a controlled outbreak. We derive a formal model to characterize this latency behavior and propose a dual-metric evaluation framework (ASR and ASR$_{delay}$) to empirically measure the delay effect. Extensive experiments on four (natural language processing)NLP benchmarks validate the core capabilities of DND: it remains dormant for a controllable duration, sustains high clean accuracy ($\ge$94\%), and achieves near-perfect post-activation attack success rates ($\approx$99\%, The average of other methods is below 95\%.). Moreover, DND exhibits resilience against several state-of-the-art defenses. This study provides the first empirical evidence that the temporal dimension constitutes a viable yet unprotected attack surface in PTMs, underscoring the need for next-generation, stateful, and time-aware defense mechanisms.